Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 19.923393 23.967017 28.410278 33.627416 39.556877 46.057964 53.695454
2025-10-19 14.158363 19.487716 25.935837 34.189179 44.342324 56.292604 71.280073
2025-10-26 11.046754 16.936262 24.616670 35.098135 48.740754 65.599442 87.681102
2025-11-02 8.517548 14.445625 22.723803 34.676165 50.998438 71.997568 100.484064
2025-11-09 6.858697 12.765018 21.536285 34.837002 53.753157 78.912621 114.026002
2025-11-16 5.513503 11.248038 20.285722 34.634682 55.812830 84.832402 126.358582
2025-11-23 4.325087 9.713264 18.737223 33.732825 56.675596 89.016346 136.391815
2025-11-30 3.729782 9.079707 18.498140 34.730271 60.273671 97.074144 151.950773
2025-12-07 3.006221 8.035558 17.405487 34.218448 61.496002 101.721536 162.844266
2025-12-14 2.533076 7.378974 16.878862 34.538497 63.952239 108.193907 176.488047
2025-12-21 1.935709 6.292346 15.391628 33.046857 63.385542 110.087311 183.508766
2025-12-28 1.711990 6.014686 15.403837 34.156009 67.053768 118.468494 200.263180
2026-01-04 1.458168 5.621567 15.184546 34.927000 70.380513 126.735017 217.572482
2026-01-11 1.225381 5.216525 14.886439 35.534009 73.490539 134.843000 235.019099
2026-01-18 1.052067 4.922480 14.776689 36.472311 77.199359 144.013942 254.350540
2026-01-25 0.829183 4.383893 14.016654 36.037715 78.434988 149.233777 267.729395
2026-02-01 0.677124 4.014211 13.584218 36.203423 80.723475 156.211744 284.013934
2026-02-08 0.537290 3.617873 13.008210 35.994985 82.283876 162.009940 298.570744
2026-02-15 0.400971 3.149851 12.146881 35.065755 82.410051 165.375395 309.311806
2026-02-22 0.346328 3.017448 12.173209 36.093466 86.300775 175.230021 330.730478
2026-03-01 0.262954 2.680552 11.547078 35.566138 87.130400 179.843099 343.742953
2026-03-08 0.213123 2.486459 11.303050 35.895888 89.648139 187.444699 361.820776
2026-03-15 0.143654 2.090641 10.329957 34.358855 88.309395 188.202685 368.579591